Enter the remaining random draw pile, the copies that solve your problem and how many cards you will draw. Choose Compare another pile to change those inputs beside the current result and see the difference in percentage points.
Count only the cards that can be drawn from the pile being modelled.
This is a probability model, not a simulation of a seeded run.
Compare your next draw
44.7% current pile: chance of drawing at least one useful copy.
Uniform random draws from one pile, without replacement or a reshuffle. Known card order and game effects are excluded. Runs locally; no account or uploaded deck.
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Use the current pile, not automatically the full deck
Exclude cards already in hand, exhausted cards and anything outside the draw pile. If a reshuffle occurs during the draw sequence, split the situation into separate stages; this calculator assumes one finite pile with no replacement.
Kingy example: among 20 cards, two are useful and five will be drawn. The chance to find at least one is about 44.7%. At the same copy count and draw count, reducing the pile to 15 raises it to about 57.1%. Neither percentage measures the quality of the rest of the deck.
To try the example, enter 20, 2 and 5 in Current pile, choose Compare another pile, then change Alternative pile to 15 cards. The results are 44.7% and 57.1%, a gain of 12.4 percentage points. Copy current inputs restores the alternative to the current values so you can compare another change.
The model computes one minus the probability of drawing only non-target cards: 1 − C(N−K, d) / C(N, d). N is pile size, K is useful copies and d is draws. It assumes every ordering is equally likely.
Known top cards, Innate, Retain, generated cards, forced draw, discards, reshuffles and the game’s deterministic seed can change the real outcome. Use the result to compare simple draft or removal scenarios, then return to the actual hand and enemy intent.
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